MODELLING THE STRATEGY OF COMMERCIAL BANK IN CONDITIONS OF RISK

Sinko N.S., Onishchenko A.M. Doc. Economy. Science, Associate Professor
National Technical University of Ukraine "KPI"

MODELLING THE STRATEGY OF COMMERCIAL BANK IN CONDITIONS OF RISK

This article deals with the issues of formation credit and deposit strategy of a commercial
bank in conditions of risk. Was determined range of factors, which imply on the amount of
demand for main products of the commercial bank. These factors include the following: the level  of interest rates; level of the people’s income; propensity to pent-up demand; competitive bids from other commercial banks; changes in the profitability of alternative investments; economic situation of the industries, regions and enterprises. Formulating the problem of modelling the strategy of a commercial bank to facilitate the formalization of the conditions listed above was elected one main factor – the interest rate on the products of the main business lines of the commercial bank. During the research were developed mathematical tools for modelling the size of the interest rates on bank products in order to minimize amount of risk on this type of asset. Solution of the problem of modeling banking strategy aimed for minimizing the amount of risk, enables to select such variant of the development strategy of a commercial bank, that results in achieving minimal amount of risk, and according to this, minimal losses. Values for attracted deposits and disbursed loans are also predicted. 
Keywords: strategy of commercial banks, the risks of banking, economics and 
mathematical modeling.
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